The Road to 2026: A Glimpse into the Future of the UCI WorldTour
Sometimes, predicting the future feels like trying to read a crystal ball — full of uncertainties, surprises, and moments that defy expectations. But here’s where it gets interesting: despite the inherent challenges, writers and fans alike love to speculate about what’s coming next in professional cycling. And trust me, the upcoming 2026 season promises to be no different!
Before jumping into bold forecasts for 2026, let’s take a moment to reflect on my previous predictions for 2025. How accurate were they? Did my forecasts hit the mark, or did I fall short? Let’s review my earlier prognostications, keeping in mind that when it comes to predictions, humility and healthy skepticism are key.
Reflecting on the 2025 Predictions
Will Tadej Pogačar dominate again?
My stance: I believed he wouldn’t match his stellar 2024 season.
What I said: “While I don’t expect Tadej to have a terrible year, I predict he’ll struggle to replicate his extraordinary 2024. Maybe he wins a Monument like Strade Bianche with a solo move of around 50 km, instead of 82, and possibly secures one Grand Tour, likely the Vuelta.”
The reality: I was completely wrong—Pogačar not only won the Tour de France, but he also dominated it, claiming his third consecutive yellow jersey. Remarkably, he took three Monument wins and was on the cusp of winning all five of cycling’s top races in a single year—an unprecedented feat. Plus, he won “only” one Grand Tour, yet it was arguably the most prestigious race on the calendar. So, even my optimistic predictions underestimated his capabilities.
Could Wout van Aert finally clinch a cobbled Monument?
My prediction: No.
My reasoning: At age 30, I thought his window was closing for big wins at races like Flanders and Roubaix.
In truth: Wout’s chances were better than I thought. He came close, and while he didn’t add a Monument to his palmarès in 2025, his performances showed he remains a top contender. My initial skepticism now looks narrow-minded.
Who had a worse season: Ineos or Tom Pidcock?
My view: Pidcock.
My written forecast: “Following Ineos’s messy, late-season breakup, I expected the team to rebound faster than Pidcock, who might have had a harder time rebuilding momentum.”
Outcome: Slightly off. Pidcock started strong with a victory at the AlUla Tour and proved his general classification potential at the Vuelta in his sixth Grand Tour appearance. Ineos, on the other hand, increased wins in 2025—stages across all three Grand Tours and nearly a Monument (Milan-San Remo)—but their overall team results, including Bernal’s seventh at Giro and limited one-day wins, left room for improvement. Still, Pidcock’s podium at the Vuelta edged out Ineos’s overall performance in my eyes.
Will Primož Roglič ever win the Tour?
My prediction: No.
My standpoint: Despite Red Bull Racing’s rise, I believed Roglič lacked the desire or the team structure needed to break through at the Tour.
Actual outcome: Roglič seemed disengaged as the season wore on, and Red Bull’s focus shifted to a big signing—Remco Evenepoel. Roglič’s future at the Tour looks uncertain, confirming my initial skepticism.
Will One Cycling truly become a reality in 2025?
My outlook: No.
My analysis: Conflict, factions, and internal politics prevented any unity from coalescing into a single, cohesive project.
Real world: The UCI officially killed the idea in July with a dismissive letter. Despite that, Richard Plugge still sees avenues for reform. But ultimately, successful overhaul in cycling requires the big stakeholders—such as the ASO—to buy in.
Can Visma rebound after a challenging 2024?
My prediction: Yes.
My view: Visma would come back swinging, with Jonas Vingegaard aiming to defend the Tour title.
Reality check: Visma did indeed post strong performances, winning two of the three Grand Tours and showcasing its status as a key stage race team. However, Vingegaard did not win the Tour again, marking a missed prediction.
What about UCI’s new safety regulations?
My take: They would be ineffective.
Outcome: I underestimated their inefficacy. The rules introduced—like rim depth caps and gear restrictions—were largely superficial. Some measures, like handlebar width limits, led to legal challenges and didn’t substantively improve rider safety. It’s clear the UCI’s approach may be more about optics than meaningful change.
Will more riders break contracts in 2025?
My forecast: Yes, especially Remco Evenepoel.
What actually happened: The transfer market saw several high-profile moves, including Remco leaving Soudal Quick-Step, a development tied to internal uncertainties. Red Bull Racing’s acquisition of Remco proved my prediction was on point.
Relegation and promotion of teams?
My guess: Arkéa and Astana would go down, while IPT (now NSN) and Uno-X would move up.
In reality: Arkéa faced financial troubles and was relegated, while Uno-X and IPT earned promotions. However, I underestimated Cofidis’ resilience, and Astana’s strategic points accumulation kept them afloat longer than expected.
Overall Summary of 2025:
My predictions scored about 5 wins, 3 losses, and 1 tie—a mixed bag. Notably, I accurately foresaw key developments like Remco’s transfer, Wout van Aert’s cobble challenges, the collapse of One Cycling, and issues in UCI safety measures. On the flip side, I underestimated Pogačar’s dominance and Visma’s rebound.
Looking Ahead: Riders to Watch in 2026
I aimed to identify promising young talent, but with mixed results. Still, development trajectories of riders like Andresen and Christen keep an eye on them.
The Tour’s Youth Classification Gains Relevance
With the aging of stars like Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel, the young rider jersey at the Tour de France has regained importance, signaling a potential shift in the sport’s generational landscape.
Five Bold Predictions for 2026:
- Will Tadej Pogačar conquer Paris-Roubaix or Milan-San Remo? My answer: Yes, if he chooses to race them.
The future remains uncertain, but if past trends continue, Pogačar’s versatility might finally see him triumph on the cobbles or early-season Classics, adding more glitter to his already impressive career.
So, what do you think? Are my predictions on target, or are the surprises just beginning? Do you agree with the idea that some forecasts are more informed guesses, while others are sheer speculation? Share your thoughts in the comments and spark the debate — cycling’s future is never dull, after all!
