As Armenia heads to the polls, the nation finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between the influence of Russia and its aspirations for a more European-oriented future. The recent trade restrictions imposed by Moscow, targeting everything from cognac to flowers, are a clear sign of the Kremlin's attempt to exert pressure and maintain its dominance in the region.
The bottling line at the Abovyan cognac factory, a symbol of Armenia's economic ties with Russia, is a stark reminder of the challenges the country faces. With 40% of its exports destined for Russia, Armenia's economic dependence is evident. Director Samvel Goroyan's hope that the situation will 'blow over' reflects the uncertainty and vulnerability of the nation's economy.
Since gaining independence in 1991, Armenia has historically been Russia's closest ally in the South Caucasus. However, under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the country has embarked on a significant foreign policy shift, aiming to reorient itself towards Europe. This election serves as a test of Pashinyan's vision, despite the reality of Armenia's deep economic ties with Russia.
Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, highlights the Kremlin's concern over losing influence in Armenia. Vladimir Putin's warning of a 'Ukrainian scenario' and Dmitry Medvedev's ominous reference to Leon Trotsky's fate demonstrate Russia's determination to maintain control.
The loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan in 2023 was a turning point for many Armenians. Russia's perceived inaction despite its security alliance with Armenia has led officials in Yerevan to question the reliability of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). This event has further fueled Armenia's desire to diversify its security partnerships.
Pashinyan's pursuit of closer ties with Europe and the United States, evidenced by the recent European Political Community summit and visits from American officials, has not gone unnoticed by Moscow. With the war in Ukraine dragging on, Russia views Armenia's westward drift as a sensitive issue, especially as it strives to maintain its influence across the former Soviet sphere.
Areg Kochinyan, president of the Research Center on Security Policy in Yerevan, emphasizes Russia's concern about losing what it considers its rightful sphere of interest. The Kremlin's previous attempts to influence elections in Moldova and Hungary, using a combination of disinformation and covert operations, are now being observed in Armenia.
Despite Moscow's efforts to bolster Pashinyan's main challenger, Samvel Karapetyan, opinion polls suggest Pashinyan's party will emerge victorious. Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center, believes Moscow's campaign has backfired, strengthening Pashinyan's position at home. De Waal adds that the Armenian opposition's perceived closeness to Russia has further damaged its credibility.
While analysts suggest Moscow has been careful not to push too hard, the Kremlin understands the risk of fueling anti-Russian sentiment. Hovhannes Nikoghosyan, an Armenian political scientist, notes that the extent of Moscow's pressure post-election remains uncertain, but Russia will likely seek a modus operandi with the existing political landscape to maintain its influence.
Pashinyan's campaign focuses on his vision of Armenia as a 'crossroads of peace,' a regional transit hub reconnecting borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey. He emphasizes the need for diversification rather than a complete break from Russia, acknowledging the continued presence of Russia's military base in Armenia.
Giragosian highlights Russia's economic dominance, making it a formidable competitor for the West. Pashinyan's policies, he argues, are based on a realistic assessment, with no intention of an overnight replacement of Russia with European or American partners.
European leaders, particularly French President Emmanuel Macron, have shown their support for Pashinyan, performing a musical act together during Macron's visit to Armenia. However, concerns about Pashinyan's democratic record and the detention of opposition activists have not gone unnoticed.
Despite Armenia's efforts to diversify its partnerships, Moscow retains significant economic and political leverage. The threat of Russia withdrawing subsidized gas, a vital component of Armenia's economy, underscores the potential for a real crisis if Armenia continues its rapid westward drift.
As Armenia votes, the nation's future hangs in the balance, with the outcome likely to shape its economic and geopolitical trajectory for years to come.
